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2010 Senate · NY

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 415 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 55% · Republican 40%

D+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 59.65% · Republican 28.13%

D+31.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55 − 40 = 15.00
  2. Actual margin = 59.645 − 28.130 = 31.515
  3. Signed miss = 15.00 − (31.515) = -16.515
  4. Absolute miss = |-16.515| = 16.515

The poll overstated the Republican by 16.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32773, race ID 1531 (538 database).