2010 Governor · UT
Dan Jones & Associates · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 1,206 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 29% · Republican 63%
R+34.0
The certified result
Democrat 31.91% · Republican 64.07%
R+32.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 29 − 63 = -34.00
- Actual margin = 31.905 − 64.068 = -32.163
- Signed miss = -34.00 − (-32.163) = -1.837
- Absolute miss = |-1.837| = 1.837
The poll overstated the Republican by 1.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32774, race ID 1307 (538 database).