2010 Senate · UT
Dan Jones & Associates · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 1,206 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 30% · Republican 57%
R+27.0
The certified result
Democrat 32.76% · Republican 61.58%
R+28.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 30 − 57 = -27.00
- Actual margin = 32.762 − 61.583 = -28.821
- Signed miss = -27.00 − (-28.821) = 1.821
- Absolute miss = |1.821| = 1.821
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32774, race ID 1540 (538 database).