2010 House · UT-2
Dan Jones & Associates · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 456 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 39%
D+12.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.49% · Republican 46.06%
D+4.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 39 = 12.00
- Actual margin = 50.487 − 46.060 = 4.427
- Signed miss = 12.00 − (4.427) = 7.573
- Absolute miss = |7.573| = 7.573
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32774, race ID 4861 (538 database).