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2010 Governor · NY

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 544 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 55% · Republican 33%

D+22.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.71% · Republican 27.04%

D+27.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55 − 33 = 22.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.709 − 27.042 = 27.667
  3. Signed miss = 22.00 − (27.667) = -5.667
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.667| = 5.667

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32778, race ID 1298 (538 database).