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2010 Governor · OH

Columbus Dispatch · fieldwork ended 2010-10-24 (9 days before the election) · 1,445 respondents · Mail

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 49%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.04% · Republican 49.04%

R+2.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 49 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.036 − 49.038 = -2.002
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-2.002) = 0.002
  4. Absolute miss = |0.002| = 0.002

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32780, race ID 1299 (538 database).