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2010 Governor · NY

Siena College · fieldwork ended 2010-10-29 (4 days before the election) · 603 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 58% · Republican 33%

D+25.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.71% · Republican 27.04%

D+27.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 58 − 33 = 25.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.709 − 27.042 = 27.667
  3. Signed miss = 25.00 − (27.667) = -2.667
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.667| = 2.667

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32781, race ID 1298 (538 database).