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2010 Governor · IA

Selzer & Co. · fieldwork ended 2010-10-28 (5 days before the election) · 805 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 50%

R+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.21% · Republican 52.81%

R+9.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 50 = -12.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.208 − 52.806 = -9.598
  3. Signed miss = -12.00 − (-9.598) = -2.402
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.402| = 2.402

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32784, race ID 1286 (538 database).