2010 Senate · IA
Selzer & Co. · fieldwork ended 2010-10-28 (5 days before the election) · 805 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 30% · Republican 61%
R+31.0
The certified result
Democrat 33.30% · Republican 64.35%
R+31.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 30 − 61 = -31.00
- Actual margin = 33.303 − 64.353 = -31.050
- Signed miss = -31.00 − (-31.050) = 0.049
- Absolute miss = |0.049| = 0.049
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32784, race ID 1521 (538 database).