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2010 Governor · AR

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-28 (5 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 60% · Republican 38%

D+22.0

The certified result

Democrat 64.42% · Republican 33.63%

D+30.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 60 − 38 = 22.00
  2. Actual margin = 64.420 − 33.633 = 30.787
  3. Signed miss = 22.00 − (30.787) = -8.787
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.787| = 8.787

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32785, race ID 1277 (538 database).