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2010 Senate · AR

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-28 (5 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 36% · Republican 55%

R+19.0

The certified result

Democrat 36.95% · Republican 57.90%

R+21.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36 − 55 = -19.00
  2. Actual margin = 36.945 − 57.903 = -20.958
  3. Signed miss = -19.00 − (-20.958) = 1.958
  4. Absolute miss = |1.958| = 1.958

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32785, race ID 1509 (538 database).