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2010 Governor · GA

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 47%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.97% · Republican 53.02%

R+10.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 47 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.971 − 53.018 = -10.047
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (-10.047) = 3.047
  4. Absolute miss = |3.047| = 3.047

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32786, race ID 1282 (538 database).