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2010 Senate · GA

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 33% · Republican 56%

R+23.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.00% · Republican 58.31%

R+19.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 33 − 56 = -23.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.999 − 58.307 = -19.308
  3. Signed miss = -23.00 − (-19.308) = -3.691
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.691| = 3.691

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32786, race ID 1515 (538 database).