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2010 Senate · KY

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2010-10-29 (4 days before the election) · 1,021 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 55%

R+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.25% · Republican 55.73%

R+11.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 55 = -15.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.248 − 55.727 = -11.479
  3. Signed miss = -15.00 − (-11.479) = -3.522
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.522| = 3.522

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32787, race ID 1523 (538 database).