Skip to content

2010 Governor · AK

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2010-10-30 (3 days before the election) · 1,539 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 54%

R+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 37.67% · Republican 59.06%

R+21.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 54 = -11.00
  2. Actual margin = 37.674 − 59.064 = -21.390
  3. Signed miss = -11.00 − (-21.390) = 10.390
  4. Absolute miss = |10.390| = 10.390

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32799, race ID 1275 (538 database).