Skip to content

2010 Senate · AK

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2010-10-30 (3 days before the election) · 1,539 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 30% · Republican 37%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 23.50% · Republican 35.55%

R+12.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 30 − 37 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 23.501 − 35.553 = -12.052
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (-12.052) = 5.052
  4. Absolute miss = |5.052| = 5.052

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32799, race ID 1507 (538 database).