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2010 Governor · OH

University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-29 (4 days before the election) · 930 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 52%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.04% · Republican 49.04%

R+2.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 52 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.036 − 49.038 = -2.002
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-2.002) = -1.998
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.998| = 1.998

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32816, race ID 1299 (538 database).