Skip to content

2010 Governor · CT

Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2010-10-28 (5 days before the election) · 930 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 48%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.21% · Republican 48.95%

R+1.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 48 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.213 − 48.950 = -1.737
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-1.737) = -1.263
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.263| = 1.263

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32817, race ID 1280 (538 database).