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2010 Governor · PA

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2010-10-30 (3 days before the election) · 570 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 51%

R+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.51% · Republican 54.49%

R+9.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 51 = -11.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.511 − 54.489 = -8.978
  3. Signed miss = -11.00 − (-8.978) = -2.023
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.023| = 2.023

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32822, race ID 1301 (538 database).