Skip to content

2010 Governor · PA

Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 1,244 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 52%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.51% · Republican 54.49%

R+9.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 52 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.511 − 54.489 = -8.978
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (-8.978) = -1.023
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.023| = 1.023

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32828, race ID 1301 (538 database).