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2010 Senate · CA

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2010-10-30 (3 days before the election) · 810 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 45%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.18% · Republican 42.17%

D+10.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 45 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.184 − 42.173 = 10.011
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (10.011) = -6.011
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.011| = 6.011

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32829, race ID 1510 (538 database).