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2010 Senate · FL

Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. · fieldwork ended 2010-10-30 (3 days before the election) · 1,527 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 20% · Republican 48%

R+28.0

The certified result

Democrat 20.20% · Republican 48.90%

R+28.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 20 − 48 = -28.00
  2. Actual margin = 20.198 − 48.895 = -28.697
  3. Signed miss = -28.00 − (-28.697) = 0.697
  4. Absolute miss = |0.697| = 0.697

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32831, race ID 1514 (538 database).