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2010 Senate · OH

Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 848 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 56%

R+19.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.40% · Republican 56.85%

R+17.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 56 = -19.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.404 − 56.846 = -17.442
  3. Signed miss = -19.00 − (-17.442) = -1.558
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.558| = 1.558

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32832, race ID 1534 (538 database).