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2010 Senate · NV

ccAdvertising · fieldwork ended 2010-10-20 (13 days before the election) · 1,884 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 39.8% · Republican 45.7%

R+5.9

The certified result

Democrat 50.29% · Republican 44.55%

D+5.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39.8 − 45.7 = -5.90
  2. Actual margin = 50.289 − 44.547 = 5.742
  3. Signed miss = -5.90 − (5.742) = -11.642
  4. Absolute miss = |-11.642| = 11.642

The poll overstated the Republican by 11.6 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32863, race ID 1528 (538 database).