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2010 House · NV-3

ccAdvertising · fieldwork ended 2010-10-20 (13 days before the election) · 2,414 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 32% · Republican 41%

R+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.47% · Republican 48.13%

R+0.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 32 − 41 = -9.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.473 − 48.126 = -0.653
  3. Signed miss = -9.00 − (-0.653) = -8.347
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.347| = 8.347

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32863, race ID 4701 (538 database).