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2010 Governor · NH

ccAdvertising · fieldwork ended 2010-10-21 (12 days before the election) · 744 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 39%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.64% · Republican 45.03%

D+7.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 39 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.640 − 45.033 = 7.607
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (7.607) = -1.606
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.606| = 1.606

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32864, race ID 1288 (538 database).