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2010 Senate · NH

ccAdvertising · fieldwork ended 2010-10-21 (12 days before the election) · 744 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 33.1% · Republican 55.8%

R+22.7

The certified result

Democrat 36.85% · Republican 60.09%

R+23.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 33.1 − 55.8 = -22.70
  2. Actual margin = 36.847 − 60.086 = -23.239
  3. Signed miss = -22.70 − (-23.239) = 0.540
  4. Absolute miss = |0.540| = 0.540

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32864, race ID 1529 (538 database).