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2010 House · NH-1

ccAdvertising · fieldwork ended 2010-10-21 (12 days before the election) · 818 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 43%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.42% · Republican 54.04%

R+11.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 43 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.422 − 54.039 = -11.617
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-11.617) = 5.617
  4. Absolute miss = |5.617| = 5.617

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32864, race ID 4702 (538 database).