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2010 Senate · OH

ccAdvertising · fieldwork ended 2010-10-19 (14 days before the election) · 2,060 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 35.3% · Republican 53.6%

R+18.3

The certified result

Democrat 39.40% · Republican 56.85%

R+17.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 35.3 − 53.6 = -18.30
  2. Actual margin = 39.404 − 56.846 = -17.442
  3. Signed miss = -18.30 − (-17.442) = -0.858
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.858| = 0.858

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32865, race ID 1534 (538 database).