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2010 House · WV-3

ccAdvertising · fieldwork ended 2010-10-15 (18 days before the election) · 1,864 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 36.4%

D+3.6

The certified result

Democrat 56.04% · Republican 43.96%

D+12.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 36.4 = 3.60
  2. Actual margin = 56.039 − 43.961 = 12.078
  3. Signed miss = 3.60 − (12.078) = -8.477
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.477| = 8.477

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32866, race ID 4886 (538 database).