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2010 Governor · OR

ccAdvertising · fieldwork ended 2010-10-13 (20 days before the election) · 2,237 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 46%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.30% · Republican 47.77%

D+1.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 46 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.295 − 47.765 = 1.530
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (1.530) = -4.530
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.530| = 4.530

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.5 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32867, race ID 1300 (538 database).