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2010 House · OR-5

ccAdvertising · fieldwork ended 2010-10-13 (20 days before the election) · 2,375 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 40.8% · Republican 37.8%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.25% · Republican 45.96%

D+5.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40.8 − 37.8 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.249 − 45.957 = 5.292
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (5.292) = -2.292
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.292| = 2.292

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32867, race ID 4790 (538 database).