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2014 Governor · AR

Rasmussen Reports · fieldwork ended 2014-10-14 (21 days before the election) · 940 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 49%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.49% · Republican 55.44%

R+13.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 49 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.494 − 55.436 = -13.942
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-13.942) = 11.942
  4. Absolute miss = |11.942| = 11.942

The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33732, race ID 1232 (538 database).