2014 Senate · CO
Mellman Group · fieldwork ended 2014-10-14 (21 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 39% · Republican 37%
D+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 46.26% · Republican 48.20%
R+1.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 39 − 37 = 2.00
- Actual margin = 46.260 − 48.205 = -1.945
- Signed miss = 2.00 − (-1.945) = 3.944
- Absolute miss = |3.944| = 3.944
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.9 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33748, race ID 23 (538 database).