2014 Governor · KS
Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2014-10-18 (17 days before the election) · 429 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 45%
D+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 46.13% · Republican 49.82%
R+3.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 45 = 5.00
- Actual margin = 46.130 − 49.821 = -3.691
- Signed miss = 5.00 − (-3.691) = 8.691
- Absolute miss = |8.691| = 8.691
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.7 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33753, race ID 1228 (538 database).