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2014 Senate · NJ

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 1,868 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 39%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.84% · Republican 42.33%

D+13.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 39 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.836 − 42.326 = 13.510
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (13.510) = -1.510
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.510| = 1.510

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33759, race ID 10 (538 database).