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2014 Governor · NM

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 962 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 50%

R+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.78% · Republican 57.22%

R+14.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 50 = -12.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.777 − 57.223 = -14.446
  3. Signed miss = -12.00 − (-14.446) = 2.446
  4. Absolute miss = |2.446| = 2.446

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33761, race ID 1235 (538 database).