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2014 Senate · NH

American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2014-10-21 (14 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 48%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.45% · Republican 48.21%

D+3.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 48 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.455 − 48.211 = 3.244
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (3.244) = -2.244
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.244| = 2.244

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33762, race ID 8 (538 database).