2014 House · ME-1
University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2014-10-18 (17 days before the election) · 348 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 57% · Republican 19%
D+38.0
The certified result
Democrat 60.43% · Republican 30.67%
D+29.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 57 − 19 = 38.00
- Actual margin = 60.432 − 30.674 = 29.758
- Signed miss = 38.00 − (29.758) = 8.242
- Absolute miss = |8.242| = 8.242
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33766, race ID 5513 (538 database).