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2014 Senate · OR

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 1,421 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 39%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.73% · Republican 36.87%

D+18.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 39 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.728 − 36.866 = 18.862
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (18.862) = -6.862
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.862| = 6.862

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33770, race ID 20 (538 database).