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2014 Governor · GA

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2014-10-21 (14 days before the election) · 704 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43.9% · Republican 43.8%

D+0.1

The certified result

Democrat 44.89% · Republican 52.75%

R+7.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.9 − 43.8 = 0.10
  2. Actual margin = 44.890 − 52.750 = -7.860
  3. Signed miss = 0.10 − (-7.860) = 7.960
  4. Absolute miss = |7.960| = 7.960

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.0 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33773, race ID 1249 (538 database).