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2014 Senate · GA

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2014-10-21 (14 days before the election) · 704 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47.3% · Republican 44.9%

D+2.4

The certified result

Democrat 45.21% · Republican 52.89%

R+7.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.3 − 44.9 = 2.40
  2. Actual margin = 45.206 − 52.889 = -7.683
  3. Signed miss = 2.40 − (-7.683) = 10.083
  4. Absolute miss = |10.083| = 10.083

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33773, race ID 17 (538 database).