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2014 Senate · OK

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 995 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 27% · Republican 63%

R+36.0

The certified result

Democrat 28.55% · Republican 68.01%

R+39.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 27 − 63 = -36.00
  2. Actual margin = 28.549 − 68.008 = -39.459
  3. Signed miss = -36.00 − (-39.459) = 3.460
  4. Absolute miss = |3.460| = 3.460

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33776, race ID 29 (538 database).