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2014 Senate · OK

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 995 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 29% · Republican 63%

R+34.0

The certified result

Democrat 28.98% · Republican 67.85%

R+38.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 29 − 63 = -34.00
  2. Actual margin = 28.984 − 67.853 = -38.869
  3. Signed miss = -34.00 − (-38.869) = 4.870
  4. Absolute miss = |4.870| = 4.870

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33776, race ID 35 (538 database).