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2014 Senate · NE

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 681 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 30% · Republican 59%

R+29.0

The certified result

Democrat 31.48% · Republican 64.34%

R+32.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 30 − 59 = -29.00
  2. Actual margin = 31.485 − 64.337 = -32.852
  3. Signed miss = -29.00 − (-32.852) = 3.852
  4. Absolute miss = |3.852| = 3.852

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33777, race ID 1 (538 database).