2014 Senate · NC
National Research · fieldwork ended 2014-10-17 (18 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 41% · Republican 42%
R+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.26% · Republican 48.82%
R+1.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 41 − 42 = -1.00
- Actual margin = 47.256 − 48.821 = -1.565
- Signed miss = -1.00 − (-1.565) = 0.564
- Absolute miss = |0.564| = 0.564
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33778, race ID 14 (538 database).