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2014 Governor · TN

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 974 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 30% · Republican 58%

R+28.0

The certified result

Democrat 22.84% · Republican 70.31%

R+47.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 30 − 58 = -28.00
  2. Actual margin = 22.843 − 70.309 = -47.466
  3. Signed miss = -28.00 − (-47.466) = 19.466
  4. Absolute miss = |19.466| = 19.466

The poll overstated the Democrat by 19.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33783, race ID 1246 (538 database).