Skip to content

2014 Governor · MN

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 2,430 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 41%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.07% · Republican 44.51%

D+5.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 41 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.071 − 44.510 = 5.561
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (5.561) = 3.439
  4. Absolute miss = |3.439| = 3.439

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33785, race ID 1238 (538 database).