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2014 Governor · MI

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 2,394 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 44%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.86% · Republican 50.92%

R+4.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 44 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.857 − 50.923 = -4.066
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (-4.066) = 5.066
  4. Absolute miss = |5.066| = 5.066

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33786, race ID 1248 (538 database).