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2014 Senate · MI

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 2,394 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 41%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.61% · Republican 41.33%

D+13.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 41 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.614 − 41.329 = 13.285
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (13.285) = -5.285
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.285| = 5.285

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33786, race ID 2 (538 database).